• TranscendentalEmpire@lemmy.today
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    4 days ago

    Last time when the housing market bubble burst I was able to buy my current home for 35k, which was dope. What do I get when the AI bubble burst, a shitty racist computer program?

      • TranscendentalEmpire@lemmy.today
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        4 days ago

        Nah, my portfolio is completely divested from big tech.

        All my money is in an etf devoted to creating ngo’s that gaslight people into believing global warming isn’t really happening. That burning feeling you get when you go outside is just your skin being weird.

        • Crikeste [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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          4 days ago

          Truth.

          Every day I just get a little more and more jaded. Bullshit fuck ass system we have to deal with, while all my homies slave away, and I get to watch rich kids with allowances more than my paycheck and never work a fucking day in their life gallivant around the city and internet. Fucking pisses me off so much.

          Sorry for the rant lol

          • AF_R [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            4 days ago

            If it makes you feel better, the planet is in a climate feedback loop right now and the worldwide ecosystem is in complete collapse, and will get exponentially worse in our lifetimes, causing worldwide conflict over water, arable land, and livable area, and everyone is just pretending it’s not going to happen

            After the collapse, it will not be possible to regain access to modern tech trees because all the resources close to the surface were mined away 200 years ago, and we would lack the engineering base and industrial capability to manufacture the tools needed to reach those resources, not to mention those resources would be needed to develop those precursors anyway

            We will return to monke. No credit scores. No power plants. No smartphones. Just farmers.

  • KnilAdlez [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    4 days ago

    Every time an article comes out that almost no companies seen value with AI, The CEO of Nvidia has the windows in his offices building reinforced to protect him from himself.

  • sodium_nitride [she/her, any]@hexbear.net
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    4 days ago

    AI is not propping up the American GDP, the American GDP is propping up the AI bubble.

    American investors have too much money (I believe because of all the stimulus from covid) but can’t invest it into mature industries because the interest rate is too high making returns in mature industries insufficient.

    On top of that, private equity is buying up non-AI businesses and basically de-investing them (reducing their fixed capital by selling off assets and squeezing cash flow).

    So you have a massive supply of investment money and only one big outlet for it.

    I’m not sure the AI bubble will pop and cause a recession. It seems to me as if cause and effect are being reversed. Like, there’s been a bunch of indicators and reports that have constantly been released showing that AI is useless for generating profits and yet the investments have continued.

    Also, I think part of the effect is that there has been a state sponsored push to develop AI, so the investment in AI is safer than other bubbles. It’s not as if the American government will just let it’s misinformation and surveillance toys just die out.

    • xiaohongshu [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      4 days ago

      This.

      American investors have too much money (I believe because of all the stimulus from covid)

      Don’t forget the interest income payment from the rate hikes in 2023-2024 that were generating $1 trillion of net interest per year that mostly went to rich people. With such strong fiscal flows (7-8% of GDP) over the past 2-3 years where so much money has been pumped out and mostly given to the rich people, those money has got to go somewhere.

      These are all free money created by US Federal Government that cannot be removed from the circulation unless taxed back by the government itself (ironically, what Trump is trying to do with his tariffs).

      When you buy stock, the money simply switches hands to the people who sold you the stock. From an aggregate standpoint, if the stock market crashes, then the people who spent money to buy the stocks lose, but the people who sold their stocks don’t. It’s simply money that is changing hands. The dollars already spent by the government into existence won’t go anywhere, unless they are taxed back by the government itself.

      (Of course this doesn’t preclude the misallocation of capital where investment is mostly concentrated in unproductive sectors while they could have been better invested in industries that improve the living standards of the people etc. and will have an impact on a real economy. A government that knows what it’s doing can easily offset this with fiscal spending, though the US finance capitalism is driven to extract from the national wealth rather than to build the nation itself)

      It’s not the same as the 2007 subprime mortgage bubble where the asset price inflation was fueled by bank lending.

      Of course, this also doesn’t preclude investors from borrowing from the banks to invest in the AI stocks but with the high interest rate, that’s not very likely.

      A recession in the US is going to be caused by a contraction in government spending (which Trump is trying very hard to achieve) and the increasingly uneven distribution of income where the wealth is increasingly concentrated into the top 1% that drives a contraction in aggregate demand as poor people reduce their consumption, leading to a recessionary spiral where people start to lose jobs and have even less money to consume.

    • sodium_nitride [she/her, any]@hexbear.net
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      4 days ago

      I should clear up a hole in my comment. I said both that mature industries don’t have good returns so investors aren’t investing into them, while also saying that AI profitability doesn’t really matter to investors. The difference between AI companies and non-AI companies right now is that AI companies have rapidly growing valuations and pools of fixed assets.

      Sure, revenues are abysmal dogshit, but all that research, data centers, gas generators, the brand imagery, government contracts are worth money. The AI companies can keep absorbing investor money by … investing it.

      Other mature industries on the other hand tend to not have much room for investing in much. I mean, they’re trying (mostly by investing in AI lol) but what massive jumps could you expect in mattress sales or mattress factories?

      The real point where AI stops being an attractive investment imo will not be when people magically realize AI is useless, but when the AI companies stop building shit and releasing new models. That’s when investors will think there is no more room for growth.

  • Revolutionary_Apples [they/them]@hexbear.net
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    4 days ago

    No. Lets break it down. Economic bubbles occur when a large number of investors prop up a market that is incapable of running at the scale their investments demand. This creates a situation where temporarily, the bubble grows at a ridiculous pace but suddenly loses all profitability. If the majority of investment in your economy is coming from an economic bubble, then the economy as a whole will pop with it.

  • daniyeg [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    3 days ago

    not an economist (thank god) but there can be healthy cycles in the sense that the money passing around is facilitating the exchange of goods and services as well building out infrastructure. but this is not healthy at all.

    this cycle is trapping huge amounts of capital in companies that are spending it on improving a service that thus far has not shown to be more efficient than the alternative, which is hurting the economy in terms of the opportunity cost. most other sectors of the US economy are in recession and it’s because all the capital is being redirected into the money pit that is AI and this cycle is insuring that none of it gets out.

    also all of these companies are overpriced and once a correction hits one of them, all of them will suffer and the economy crashes. maybe people will find a way to use the giant data centres after the crash (probably some dystopian military-industrial-surveillance complex shit), but the only potential upside to this that i see is modernizing and expanding the power grid, but that takes much longer than the potential timeline for the AI bubble so i think most power grid projects will either be cancelled or bailed out and finished by the government after the crash.