She’s only ever been going up and gaining momentum
Only if you live in an echo-chamber that is built to feed-back to you the things you want to hear instead of looking at actual data. Keep in mind, Trump supporters say the identical thing that you are saying about your candidate, about their candidate
Reality check. Harris did have real momentum coming out of the convention. She doesn’t have it any longer. The rate of change in her polling has declined across all polls (eg, momentum) and even in some cases gone negative (she’s losing ground). Harris was almost universially increasing or maintaining her momentum until about 2 weeks out from the convention. This has changed (as did her campaign strategy and messaging). Harris is no longer on track to win. She is on track to lose if these polling results hold true. As well, these figures are consistent across the swing states.
Florida:
Michigan:
Nevada:
You get the picture, and you have the tools to reproduce these results and come back to reality.
So do I get the apology right now or do I have to wait?
[Addendum: If you need access to Nate Silvers data to reproduce this, I can provide. Alternatively, you can use 538 and recode it a bit. Nates data is generally easier to work with and I’ll drop the links below for completeness. I want you to be confident in these results. If you have trouble accessing, let me know.
Ok great. Show me the lie and we can take it from there.
About her poll numbers declining and flat lining. She’s only ever been going up and gaining momentum
Only if you live in an echo-chamber that is built to feed-back to you the things you want to hear instead of looking at actual data. Keep in mind, Trump supporters say the identical thing that you are saying about your candidate, about their candidate
Reality (for GA) (Data accessed, 10/10/24, 20:03:54 UTC, Silver Bullets, and a codeshare link for you to reproduce this figure):
Reality (for NC) :
Reality (for PA) :
Reality check. Harris did have real momentum coming out of the convention. She doesn’t have it any longer. The rate of change in her polling has declined across all polls (eg, momentum) and even in some cases gone negative (she’s losing ground). Harris was almost universially increasing or maintaining her momentum until about 2 weeks out from the convention. This has changed (as did her campaign strategy and messaging). Harris is no longer on track to win. She is on track to lose if these polling results hold true. As well, these figures are consistent across the swing states.
Florida:
Michigan:
Nevada:
You get the picture, and you have the tools to reproduce these results and come back to reality.
So do I get the apology right now or do I have to wait?
[Addendum: If you need access to Nate Silvers data to reproduce this, I can provide. Alternatively, you can use 538 and recode it a bit. Nates data is generally easier to work with and I’ll drop the links below for completeness. I want you to be confident in these results. If you have trouble accessing, let me know.
AZ: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/PIfyl.csv
FL: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/cjyet.csv
GA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/UsnHS.csv
MI: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/aXTQJ.csv
MN: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/9UhVa.csv
NV: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/cmRIw.csv
NH: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/3o8Wf.csv
NC: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/dU8Ti.csv
PA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/Jhz1g.csv
TX: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/IRAjD.csv
VA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/TgibS.csv
WI: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/8vbx4.csv
]