• neukenindekeuken@sh.itjust.works
      2·
      1 day ago

      It’s a giant game of chicken for everyone in the market right now.

      Nobody’s making moves like AI is about to pop, because to do so would cause AI’s bubble to pop. So everyone leaves it in the market while it’s skyrocketing up on AI hype hoping they can time their exit from the market before everyone else is left holding the bag.

      Once it starts, and hedge funds start to acknowledge the bubble and rebalance their assets away for the safety of their investors, the house of cards comes down.

      How long will that take? Who knows. The housing bubble was known and lasted for years before it finally popped.

    • Xerxos@lemmy.ml
      2·
      1 day ago

      As soon as a reasonable bad news story breaks. For example if the LLM architecture shows it’s limits without a way forward, or that new laws make further AI research unfeasible. Multiple big players abandoning LLM research.

      Something like that from a trusted news source would burst the bubble.

      I even think that most people in AI know that it’s a bubble, it’s just that they gamble that AI reaches AGI or even ASI before the bubble bursts.

        • Xerxos@lemmy.ml
          1·
          16 hours ago

          The mantra of ‘more compute, more data’ is still strong with AI companies.

          I agree that the latest models haven’t had the massive gains that e.g. GPT-3 to GPT-4 had and people say that data is mostly used up. I also don’t see a big reduction in hallucinations.

          Still, none of the big players have admitted that they hit a wall, either with scaling or data. Getting reliable information from such secretive companies is hard.

          And their actions (building new data centers, new chip designs) seem to indicate confidence in their path.

          If that confidence is warranted… who knows?

    • hitmyspot@aussie.zone
      7·
      2 days ago

      Well, as someone who expects it to pop soon, I’ve taken all my superannuation (Australian pension) out of stocks and shares and put it in bonds, and cash. It won’t make it pop, but it hopefully protects me when it does. If everyone did that, it would pop. Obviously, many are, given the price of gold. It seems bitcoin could be at risk of a pop too, given last week. I assume both will happen at once.

    • pdxfed@lemmy.world
      2·
      2 days ago

      Did you look at the markets Friday? They was probably mostly tarrif response but it’s also lots of articles in the last month about everyone acknowledging there is a bubble, lack of other gov data being released, it could come any day or be a few years away. Altman said 2 months ago "yeah there are a lot of bad AI companies that money is being wasted on, that was my current to retreat to some more conservative assets. Have a bit of exposure still but more than ready to stop hearing about fucking AI.