This week’s summary of the situation is in spoiler tags below:
preamble
Diplomacy between Iran and the US has begun in… perhaps not earnest, but it’s certainly started. Iran’s very reasonable requirement that the Zionist occupation stop ethnically cleansing Lebanon and withdraw has caused a great deal of consternation throughout their population, and several analysts have suggested that Netanyahu being forced to accept Trump’s (and therefore Iran’s) demands spells the end of his leadership in the coming elections; then, the occupation is expected to “mellow out” and the conflicts and genocides slow and stop. This view is only really impactful if you believe that, rather than the US and Zionists being in a strongly mutually beneficial relationship based on geopolitical, financial, and clandestine goals, that instead Netanyahu is a devious mastermind bending any and all in the US to his whims. I don’t believe this; and, if anything, the events of at least the last three years prove that he’s really quite stupid, with “Israel” being in its worst position in decades under his rule.
Nonetheless, Iran has made the issue of Lebanon a not-quite-red-line (an orange line?). It hasn’t stopped them from going to Switzerland and beginning negotiations, but they still want to strongly express their discontent by harnessing the newfound superweapon that is Hormuz. Similarly, threats by Trump and others to restart the war if Iran doesn’t bend to their whims have been met with formal stoppages of negotiations, but it appears technical teams are still talking to each other and working things out. Trump’s threats are fairly idle at this point because most in the US military must know that there’s essentially zero effective military actions left to them with their current munition stockpiles.
Trump let slip that the US has about 3-4 weeks of oil reserves left, which aligns moderately well with the projections of analysts like Yves at Naked Capitalism (it’s now expected in late July rather than early July as was originally forecasted months ago). This means that even if the negotiation process goes off without a hitch, that there’s going to be a period of at least a few weeks where the US is out of reserves but is waiting for new shipments of oil to physically traverse the distance between Hormuz and the US continent. And many analysts have pointed out that it’s going to be a long time - at least a few months, and perhaps more like 9 to 12 - before Hormuz flows pick up to pre-war levels, due to logistics companies and insurance companies wanting to be sure that their property isn’t going to be blown up mid-transit. Regardless, the fact that the timetable is now so tight could indicate that the Trump admin has finally realized that it cannot outbluff and outwait Iran, and will give them a good deal out of necessity, even if this means forcing their unsinkable aircraft carrier to stop bombing children for five consecutive minutes.
However, there is a palpable anxiety throughout Iran right now, especially due to controversy over the degree to which Khamenei actually agreed with the current course of events. This does seem to be confirmed by his wording (to paraphrase): “In principle, I took a different view, but allowed the President to proceed.” Many inside Iran now have more fear that their politicians will not push hard enough for a good deal than that they’ll return to war, with all that may imply. This isn’t an unfounded fear, especially given how suddenly the 12 Day War ended despite Iran’s strengths being medium-and-long-term attrition (now confirmed by this latest war). This is one of those events that reveals how the Supreme Leader in fact doesn’t have complete dictatorial power unlike how he’s conceived of in much of the West, and that even during existential wars, major concessions have to be made to democratically elected leaders. Though, this could also be a clever move to shift blame explicitly onto the Reformist elements if the deal collapses.
Last week’s thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Buy-now-pay-later for S$4 bubble tea highlights Thailand’s household debt risk
There are some contradictory data points, but consumption debt roughly is around 50%-75% of all household debt.
Unless another re-iteration of Thaksinomics comes into play, involving vast amounts of debt cancellation and restructuring, the economy will continue chugging along until everything falls down.
The relative stability afforded by external factors over the past century (CIA-Military co-operation, the Vietnam War, the Plaza Accords, 90s Cambodia liberalisation, Burmese Civil War) will run out of steam.
When a revolution comes, it is the result of an ancien régime refusing to reform and generate broad-based prosperity. All the noise about geopolitics plays an important but small part in the entire process. The blame rests solely on the ruling class.
Supporters of the current government accuse dissidents of being backed by the CIA. What do you think of that?
They are almost certainly right.
@oliveoil@hexbear.net
I’ll respond here to address both points.
There’s roughly 2 factions that are opposed to the current military-royal bureaucracy and associated agribusiness and rentier capital, an urban elite comprised of the middle classes and the haute bourgeoisie, and the rural masses, mainly semi-proletarians, farmers and migrants (Laotian/Cambodian/Burmese).
The history of Thailand is a case of FDI enclave development and as such of severe spatial uneven development, in which urbanization remains prohibited through feudal-like debt and social structures in the countryside. This is why only 45% of the population are still rural.
There is definitely evidence of proper NED and other CIA infiltrations, especially for Orange supporters (Move Forward Party), but due to their concentrated class allegiance mainly in Bangkok, I don’t personally see a way in which the comprador faction especially can sustain enough of a base to control the entire country. Basically they are idealists and are too incompetent and insulated in their bubble to manage the ongoing contradictions and seize power.
The current greatest risk is that of the ancien regime - the royal-military bureaucracy and rentier Capital. You can look at the statistics yourself, the state does not benefit the masses in anyway. It is the state that has shot and suppressed communists, and killed and disappeared protestors, especially of the mainly rural-based red shirt movement. It is the state that has lead to stagnant wages for 3 decades, mass debt slavery and led the country to be a foreign playground for Western tourists. It is the current administration and classes that allowed US airplanes to refuel and bomb Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. It is the current ruling class that joined SEATO.
I’ll name one more statistic: electricity generation. Vietnam now generates more electricity per capita than Thailand. Why? Because the Thai state does not benefit from mass infrastructure like electrification. Electricity generation in the country has been nearly stagnant for a decade - despite less than 40% of the population having air conditioning.
China’s rise complicates the picture of course, and Thailand does have a relatively strategic geography, but that can be said for any state neighbouring the South China Sea. This has lead to a more accommodative stance by the country to China as anyone competent enough will no who holds the cards now. But current BRI buildouts to the North and South of Thailand implictly understands that despite the central location of Thailand in Mainland Southeast Asia - it is not that important. In practice, the US will struggle to leverage any gains when every other state will retain a Pro-China posture (Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, various Burmese factions, Laos and Cambodia). Chinese investments are growing in Thailand, but it has other avenues to secure and bypass the maritime chokepoints - and that also implies that somehow China won’t just wipe the floor with the US navy in it’s local and home waters.
The USA will no doubt try to install a friendlier regime, but it’s reach is limited by the very nature of the political economy of Thailand. It is heavily decentralized, mired with internal factions and spatial heterogeneity. It isn’t centralised like South Korea or Japan. One has to do the painstaking case of how the current reality will become worse than it already is and list out how (concretely) a “colour revolution” would take place, ie the factions, the social base, the means, etc.
Of course this isn’t team sports, and reality will reveal itself accordingly. I myself am confident that if the oppressed classes continue to exist in the current state, there is more likely a shift to a truly anti-imperialist and materially progressive movement than there is to a comprador client state. I do have that optimism.