If there’s a round peg and a square hole, the square hole is Frequentism.
Frequentism won’t work with a contained set of inputs. But now we’re getting into Abstract Algebra rather than probability.
I don’t understand your point about Bill Gates. You’re saying he had one plan, but then found another plan worked better.
I’m saying he kept coming at the problem dead on without exploring the second and third order consequences of did policies.
Lots of maths up front but the models were shit. The end result was a reactionary mess precisely because Gates and his lackeys didn’t care about the popular politics of their policies.
Ozy’s observation is that EA charity organizations generally focus on the opposite of buy-in; they look for areas of neglect
The observation that mosquitoe nets and medical interventions have a long term benefit isn’t a problem on its face. But, again, Ozy is attacking a complex problem of supply chains and sustainable development from a very boiled down “do things that look good on my spreadsheet” as the “Effective” solution.
When these plans fall apart, because the proponents fail to account for second order problems, they denounce everyone else as another problem they need to strike head on, rather than considering where they went wrong.
Poverty and food insecurity are the main reasons why some fishermen in Malawi use mosquito nets as illegal fishing nets, an analysis conducted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Programs has found.
Because the focus was on disease and food security was discounted as a less pressing problem, the primary tool for mitigating disease spread became an environmental catastrophe.
I’m legitimately curious how Abstract Algebra relates here. I thought that was all about group theory and such.
Lots of math but the models were shit
Mkay, but, this doesn’t mean math is wrong. It means actual research is needed. Trials and case studies and comparative analysis and so on. Fortunately, that’s exactly what givewell does. You can criticize Gates for not predicting second and third order consequences, but I’d argue the only thing we can do in the world where the higher-order consequences are somewhat predictable in advance is preserving the status quo.
The misuse of mosquito nets for fishing is bad, yes – and depressingly ironic – but you should check out the Against Malaria Foundation’s response, where they say basically the misuse of malaria nets is not very widespread.
Frequentism won’t work with a contained set of inputs. But now we’re getting into Abstract Algebra rather than probability.
I’m saying he kept coming at the problem dead on without exploring the second and third order consequences of did policies.
Lots of maths up front but the models were shit. The end result was a reactionary mess precisely because Gates and his lackeys didn’t care about the popular politics of their policies.
The observation that mosquitoe nets and medical interventions have a long term benefit isn’t a problem on its face. But, again, Ozy is attacking a complex problem of supply chains and sustainable development from a very boiled down “do things that look good on my spreadsheet” as the “Effective” solution.
When these plans fall apart, because the proponents fail to account for second order problems, they denounce everyone else as another problem they need to strike head on, rather than considering where they went wrong.
Case in point
Because the focus was on disease and food security was discounted as a less pressing problem, the primary tool for mitigating disease spread became an environmental catastrophe.
I’m legitimately curious how Abstract Algebra relates here. I thought that was all about group theory and such.
Mkay, but, this doesn’t mean math is wrong. It means actual research is needed. Trials and case studies and comparative analysis and so on. Fortunately, that’s exactly what givewell does. You can criticize Gates for not predicting second and third order consequences, but I’d argue the only thing we can do in the world where the higher-order consequences are somewhat predictable in advance is preserving the status quo.
The misuse of mosquito nets for fishing is bad, yes – and depressingly ironic – but you should check out the Against Malaria Foundation’s response, where they say basically the misuse of malaria nets is not very widespread.