The one constant with China is change. There have been plenty of dynasties whose power waxed and waned over the years. Much of the current Chinese territory is being held through force, like East Turkestan or Tibet. As long as the people keep experiencing better living conditions they’ll tolerate the tyrannical governance of the CCP. The government’s betting big on censorship and shows of force, but I doubt it’ll suffice if enough civil discontent rises at once. China’s not a very resource independent country and all it takes is a shortage of food or oil to quickly destabilize its economy and its hold on power by extension.

Since much of the world still relies on China’s factories for so many general goods there’s a balance on its power through trade. As production and logistical chains continue to diversify outside its territories though, it’ll have a harder time keeping its citizens in check through economic growth. It’ll either have to start shifting into a service economy with good relations on its trade partners and neighbors for goods, or it may start to take a more nationalistic path. There’s an argument that both paths are actively being followed.

China heavily investing in trade and infrastructure with African countries may keep things peaceful as it continues to grow economically. This prosperity will only delay the inevitable though. People will eventually want to move away from factory work into more lucrative but limited service jobs as inflation starts to take hold due to an ever increasing amount of money in circulation. Its expected population decline will also start to kick in as the much higher population of older citizens would burden the comparatively smaller one child policy generation that would be needed to take care of them.

China promoting nationalism will distract the resentment of its people from the government to outside powers instead, but it would come with some severe geopolitical consequences. It’s already pissed off all its maritime neighbors by trespassing and overfishing in their waters, along with intentionally using its navy to attack fishing vessels. It’s also trying to claim vast swathes of international waters by dumping a bunch of sand and establishing forts on them all over the South China Sea. China and India routinely fight in border skirmishes using sticks and stones to try to keep the conflict from escalating. Eventually all the regional countries might decide to form a coalition and starve China out of its oil via a few strategically placed blockades either on the Strait of Malacca or along Sri Lanka. The economic damage over something like this might provide enough domestic unrest to force the government to change.