I mean hey, your username is on point for your opinion here but uh, no.
No, Netanyahu in particular has been stating Iran will have a nuke in months since about 1995.
Go check the Daily Show’s (or maybe its Jon Stewart’s?) YT channel for a quick montage recap of Bibi literally claiming this ssme thing for 30 fucking years.
It is 30 years later, and even the official consensus of the US’s own intelligence communities is that Iran does not have a nuke, cannot achieve enrichment beyond about 60%.
And that only even happened because Trump trashed Obama’s deal with Iran to keep enrichment to only low grade, nuclear power plant levels… which was working, and they were adhering to, and letting the IAEA in to verify.
Meanwhile they are being bombarded by a hostile nation state that has had nuclear weapons since roughly 1970, that constantly does everything it can to lie about that, to prevent IAEA inspectors from being assigned to them.
That nation state is Israel, if that wasn’t clear.
So… Iran was previously cooperative and diplomatic.
Then Trump was a backstabbing, bellicose buffoon, and Iran… didn’t even revert to MAD, they reverted to roughly 2 steps below MAD, as you’d have to run the 60% enriched uranium through an entire other industrial process to get it to weapons grade, which no one believes they can currently do, and then make that into actual bombs, which is a whole other thing entirely.
The Iranians have already shown themselves to be quite capable of rational negotiations about nukes, and adhere to agreements.
It is Israel and the US who have been irrational, agressive and underhanded, who have gone back on their word, and forced Iran into an impossible situation from their POV.
We could just maybe not act like insane warmongers, and Iran would likely go back to the negotiating table… us assuring them we will stop assasinating their negotiators might be a good first step.
So first, I am not a nuclear physicist, just a bored autist with nothing better to do while doing PT full time to recover from a series of injuries.
That being said:
Tritium and Deuterium are normally what you’d need for a fission-fusion bomb, or… trying to develop a fusion reactor like a tokamak or what not.
Tritium and Deuterium are mechanically, industrially, produced in yet again another different kind of process that is not the same as the different stages of uranium enrichment.
As of right now, the only sources I can find claiming Iran is developing a tritium production capacity… all trace back to here:
But this is.directly conflicted with Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence (basically her job is to oversee all of the US’s various intelligence agencies, hybridize what they are saying into a cohesive big picture)
… Tritium alone will not make a nuclear fusion /hydrogen bomb.
You have to start the fusion reaction with a fission reaction, made out of >90% enriched urananium.
While it is true that Iran has a lot of 60% enriched uranium… even if they did have tritium… they would still have to further enrich the uranium, and actually build and test an actual nuclear bomb/warhead.
Making a bomb actually work properly is an entirely other, pretty darn difficult thing to pull off, which is why the precise details of that is basically the most classified info on Earth.
Currently, as best I can tell, US intelligence agencies as represented by Gabbard have essentially dismissed this NCRI report as flawed or invalid in some way… which is why Trump just said that he doesn’t care, because he has seen this story that originates from NCRI bouncing all over the right wing American media sphere.
Trump, rather infamously, doesn’t (or potentially can’t) read briefings or documents that are more than about a page long.
His first admin. was marked by many staffers figuring out stupid ways to overly summarize things, or make any documents he’d need to read be openly praising him, for him to actually read anything… and in this second admin it seems even worse, all he does is watch TV news, and he will claim it is more true than literally the reports from the most expensive intelligence network on the planet…
… so. yeah. we have insane conspiracy theory rapist racist felonious dementia grandpa for President, and he just believes whatever he wants to, and then his maggat cult followers do the same.
You can make a just fission only bomb with just highly enriched (>90%) uranium… again assuming you can actually make the bomb in the correct manner.
The US’s early nukes, the ones we dropped on Japan, were fission only.
Still awfully destructive, but … the opposite of miniaturized.
With fission-fusion (and other more complex setups)… you can get much more destructive power in a lot smaller and less heavy package.
Making a fission only warhead on a missile or in a bomb… you would need something quite large.
Like, hide it in a semi truck or large van and then detonate it.
Or a fuck off huge ICBM.
Basically, its… not very realistic to imagine a fission only nuke as something that could be practially be used by conventional military delivery methods that I am aware that Iran has access to.
Its possible you could make like a suicide bomber truck, an Oklahoma City Bombing / WTC 93 bombing with a nuke… but this truck, with a goddamned nuke in it, would have to somehow drive to its target.
Not impossible, Ukraine and Israel just managed to sneak basically semi trucks full of drones and shit into enemy territory… but not easy either.
Iran has certainly snuck equipment into Syria, Lebanon, Iraq… but not Israel/Palestine, at least as I am aware, nothing that huge, that heavy.
Iran can and does send funds and basically build a gun, build a mortar, build a bomb kits to Hamas and Hezbollah… as well as train people in being good guerilla fighters… but I’ve never heard of them delivering something you couldn’t smuggle in a car trunk.
I may be not sufficiently informed on… the entirety of everything Iran has managed to smuggle into Israel/Palestine though.
I mean hey, your username is on point for your opinion here but uh, no.
No, Netanyahu in particular has been stating Iran will have a nuke in months since about 1995.
Go check the Daily Show’s (or maybe its Jon Stewart’s?) YT channel for a quick montage recap of Bibi literally claiming this ssme thing for 30 fucking years.
It is 30 years later, and even the official consensus of the US’s own intelligence communities is that Iran does not have a nuke, cannot achieve enrichment beyond about 60%.
And that only even happened because Trump trashed Obama’s deal with Iran to keep enrichment to only low grade, nuclear power plant levels… which was working, and they were adhering to, and letting the IAEA in to verify.
Meanwhile they are being bombarded by a hostile nation state that has had nuclear weapons since roughly 1970, that constantly does everything it can to lie about that, to prevent IAEA inspectors from being assigned to them.
That nation state is Israel, if that wasn’t clear.
So… Iran was previously cooperative and diplomatic.
Then Trump was a backstabbing, bellicose buffoon, and Iran… didn’t even revert to MAD, they reverted to roughly 2 steps below MAD, as you’d have to run the 60% enriched uranium through an entire other industrial process to get it to weapons grade, which no one believes they can currently do, and then make that into actual bombs, which is a whole other thing entirely.
The Iranians have already shown themselves to be quite capable of rational negotiations about nukes, and adhere to agreements.
It is Israel and the US who have been irrational, agressive and underhanded, who have gone back on their word, and forced Iran into an impossible situation from their POV.
We could just maybe not act like insane warmongers, and Iran would likely go back to the negotiating table… us assuring them we will stop assasinating their negotiators might be a good first step.
You seem knowledgeable. Is tritium still necessary for nukes, and, if so, does Iran have access to that?
So first, I am not a nuclear physicist, just a bored autist with nothing better to do while doing PT full time to recover from a series of injuries.
That being said:
Tritium and Deuterium are normally what you’d need for a fission-fusion bomb, or… trying to develop a fusion reactor like a tokamak or what not.
Tritium and Deuterium are mechanically, industrially, produced in yet again another different kind of process that is not the same as the different stages of uranium enrichment.
As of right now, the only sources I can find claiming Iran is developing a tritium production capacity… all trace back to here:
https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/nuclear/ncri-reveals-secret-rainbow-tritium-facility-for-nuclear-missile-warheads/
But this is.directly conflicted with Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence (basically her job is to oversee all of the US’s various intelligence agencies, hybridize what they are saying into a cohesive big picture)
https://www.factcheck.org/2025/06/trump-gabbard-comments-on-iran-nuclear-capability/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-iran-wasnt-building-a-nuclear-weapon-trump-dismisses-that-assessment
She mentions nothing about tritium.
… Tritium alone will not make a nuclear fusion /hydrogen bomb.
You have to start the fusion reaction with a fission reaction, made out of >90% enriched urananium.
While it is true that Iran has a lot of 60% enriched uranium… even if they did have tritium… they would still have to further enrich the uranium, and actually build and test an actual nuclear bomb/warhead.
Making a bomb actually work properly is an entirely other, pretty darn difficult thing to pull off, which is why the precise details of that is basically the most classified info on Earth.
Currently, as best I can tell, US intelligence agencies as represented by Gabbard have essentially dismissed this NCRI report as flawed or invalid in some way… which is why Trump just said that he doesn’t care, because he has seen this story that originates from NCRI bouncing all over the right wing American media sphere.
Trump, rather infamously, doesn’t (or potentially can’t) read briefings or documents that are more than about a page long.
His first admin. was marked by many staffers figuring out stupid ways to overly summarize things, or make any documents he’d need to read be openly praising him, for him to actually read anything… and in this second admin it seems even worse, all he does is watch TV news, and he will claim it is more true than literally the reports from the most expensive intelligence network on the planet…
… so. yeah. we have insane conspiracy theory rapist racist felonious dementia grandpa for President, and he just believes whatever he wants to, and then his maggat cult followers do the same.
Thanks, great analysis. Fuck that piece of shit and fuck the people who own him with a whale’s dork.
One last note:
You can make a just fission only bomb with just highly enriched (>90%) uranium… again assuming you can actually make the bomb in the correct manner.
The US’s early nukes, the ones we dropped on Japan, were fission only.
Still awfully destructive, but … the opposite of miniaturized.
With fission-fusion (and other more complex setups)… you can get much more destructive power in a lot smaller and less heavy package.
Making a fission only warhead on a missile or in a bomb… you would need something quite large.
Like, hide it in a semi truck or large van and then detonate it.
Or a fuck off huge ICBM.
Basically, its… not very realistic to imagine a fission only nuke as something that could be practially be used by conventional military delivery methods that I am aware that Iran has access to.
Its possible you could make like a suicide bomber truck, an Oklahoma City Bombing / WTC 93 bombing with a nuke… but this truck, with a goddamned nuke in it, would have to somehow drive to its target.
Not impossible, Ukraine and Israel just managed to sneak basically semi trucks full of drones and shit into enemy territory… but not easy either.
Iran has certainly snuck equipment into Syria, Lebanon, Iraq… but not Israel/Palestine, at least as I am aware, nothing that huge, that heavy.
Iran can and does send funds and basically build a gun, build a mortar, build a bomb kits to Hamas and Hezbollah… as well as train people in being good guerilla fighters… but I’ve never heard of them delivering something you couldn’t smuggle in a car trunk.
I may be not sufficiently informed on… the entirety of everything Iran has managed to smuggle into Israel/Palestine though.