kittin [he/him]

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Joined 9 months ago
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Cake day: August 13th, 2024

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  • Tbh the rare earths thing is overstated.

    The very large fraction of rare earth imports are used to make magnets for stuff like lawn mower motors. Total imports of rare earths are in the hundreds of millions.

    Actually peanuts and there are other sources for them that are uneconomical compared to china’s production but if push came to shove the US could easily handle rare earths increasing in price and rarity by an order of magnitude without anyone really noticing.

    The real problem would be building the refinement capacity which could easily take years, but critical industries that truly rely on rare earths can survive on stockpiles for years as well.

    Rare earths are not a trump card.








  • I think the Fermi paradox is anthropomorphic.

    There’s an assumption built into it that “civilization” is the end point of life, the “highest” or “most advanced” form of life. But biology doesn’t work that way.

    I’m absolutely certain that the universe is filled with organic chemistry and life but the idea that civilization is inevitable or stable seems anthropomorphic. Civilization has barely existed on earth for 5 or 10 thousand years, and it has only been doing stuff that would be detectable from far away for maybe 1 or 2 centuries.

    From a sample size or 1 we can already see that is an uncommon state for life to exist in, and it already seems like an unstable niche to occupy.

    Life has existed on earth for what 4 billion years, complex life for 500 to 1000 million, and civilization for 10,000 at most. There’s every reason to suppose that life is inevitable when the planet permits that kind of chemistry but practically no basis to assume civilization is inevitable when life exists.