I mean it’s bad for you in the way that salt is bad for you… Too much without anything to balance it is bad, but used correctly it actually has benefits. The fat free diet to me is the same as trying to have a salt free diet… There’s probably more going on there than just that one thing.
It’s 2 of 3
Ah yes. Great. We’re the election conspiracy theorists now. It’s apparently democrats turn to make completely baseless accusations.
This stuff is exhausting. We want to look for every reason except for the one that matters: Democrats lost America. We need to break the party apart and start over.
Every other excuse just delays and distracts. Democrats fucked it. We can be all high and righteous as we want, but we lost 2 of 3 to Donald Trump.
Face the reality. Democrats need to reinvent themselves or they will lose to shit candidates like Trump.
… So living further away from the equator is detrimental to your health? I haven’t heard of this phenomenon.
Iowa itself is a lost cause. It’s 75% Republican here. We’re gerrymandered to high hell, so even if Baccam squeaks through, Iowa state legislature won’t look very blue. If it’s 60/40 Republican I’d be absolutely shocked.
But contributing one Senator nationally would be pretty neat.
If Harris gets Iowa the race is over. These races are not truly independent - they are correlated. If Harris picks up Iowa, there’s a very good chance that means she’s swept every swing state.
Right - I just mean literally any attempt to try and cater to a specific group is gonna be like this.
Both campaigns go after different groups. I just think literally anything that is contained in these are going to sound racist.
In a less charged example, both candidates try and appeal to women. Those could be viewed as sexist.
To be fair… When the article’s opening line is “In outreach to Black Men”, it doesn’t really matter what you put after. It’s going to sound bad.
It can be both things.
There are no definitive data points that should lead anyone to believe that either candidate has a significant advantage.
I’m not sure anyone who is well versed in election projections or polling would say anything other than it’s a toss up. As a heavy consumer of said data and reporting, I haven’t seen anything to the contrary.
You’re not wrong about media incentives, but they’re also not wrong that this is a very close race.
… What?
Is this some weird “victim mentality” thing?
People love to use it because it got popular and grew to mean more than the original definition to the point where it just got generic to encompass a wide range of things. It’s the same as cringe.
I thought the same thing. People are obsessed with the word gaslighting.
This seems more like textbook hypocrisy. Person doing thing talks about the harms of others doing that thing.
Omg what kind of dog is that? It’s marvelous.
I mean generally it’s all correlated. It’s not perfect, but typically a 2-3 point national poll lead is close to an electoral college tie.
This is the dumbest shit and we need to fucking grow up a bit. These “questions” are asinine and not that hard to explain.
Not denying the incident was reported, but there’s a heavy insinuation here that this was set up or manufactured. If so… They needed an entire Secret Service detail, local event police and everyone standing by to be in on it. A couple hundred people are going to be involved and no one leaks it?
“Supposed” gunman. I like how you pivot from “this is probably set up” to “ok even if it was real Trump is capable of worse”
Again, the insinuation of an inside job here. We’re going to involve a hundred or more people and no one thought it would be a problem to kill a bystander? Or the gunman was so good he killed a specific plant? And they had a 100% success rate… No one heard the plan and thought “oh this is a bad idea” and spoke out about it?
Big difference between deleting text messages and MURDERING AN AMERICAN to further a political agenda.
Yes. Things happen all the time. Trump people are saying this is to distract from Biden being inept. There’s always a convenient time.
Yes you dumbshit he was concerned about his hat because they already had the all clear. The shooter got taken out in seconds. They wouldn’t have moved Trump. And they all were saying it was all clear. Also have you ever seen people in an absolute panic? Not the most rational state. Same thing with his shoes. That’s ALSO why he took the photo op. They all dove on top of him. They figured out the shooter’s location and took him down before Trump even got up.
There’s pictures of the fucking bullet in flight. So either that was ALSO manufactured (a member of the press willingly heard the plan ahead of time and doctored a photo or they actually shot a bullet inches away from Trumps head AND captured it). But no let’s just get Trump, a bumbly ass fuck to orchestrate this perfectly. I’m sure he had it a planned to go down, and everyone covered him and he pulled out a razor blade, cut his ear, and put it away, all perfectly executed and no one caught anything on camera from any of the dozens of angles.
This shit is so fucking stupid and I’m so sick of hearing about it. These points all rely on the most ass backwards way of thinking where dozens of people are in on this conspiracy and relies on all of them bring cool with killing someone to make it good for Trump.
Get this shit outta here. This doesn’t deserve the pixels on the screen used to illuminate this nonsense. Be a fucking grown up. We’re going to have to figure out a real way to beat Trump, not pretend this was some false flag bullshit. Accept reality. Be a goddamn adult.
I’m not even saying you’re wrong for questioning, but I am saying you are wrong because the sheer volume of things that would need to occur for this theory to be even remotely possible is so ridiculous, I would consider aliens an equally plausible situation.
This comment says it better than I could. The debate was a disaster for Biden. Which sucks.
ITT: People not understanding probabilistic forecasts.
Nate Silvers models are not perfect, but pretty close. You can do retro analysis on them to see. If someone with a 5% chance to win actually does win, that doesn’t mean the model was wrong… That just needs to actually happen only 5% of the time.
Getting elections"wrong" as people are talking about here shows they don’t really know how these models work. If you haven’t looked at the retrospective analysis on these results, then you are likely unqualified to declare that they are useless or wrong.
Saying polls are garbage is a straight bad take. The differentiation between polls is immense, and people treat them like they are just one thing.
They do adjust, and if you don’t know that I’m not likely to believe you have the knowledge to say they are bad.
Polls are still very indicative. Democrats are not magically beating them by 9 points. That’s just flatly untrue, unless you are just rolling every poll together with no regard for methodology, funding source, sample size, or track record.
Starting with a declaimer of being fairly far left…
Biden is not looking like he has a winning chance. He’s barely leading in national polls, but those polls are misleading, as, because of the senate, democrats typically need to win by 2.5-3 points in order to have a shot at the electoral college. So he’s behind there.
He’s behind in several key states where he needs to win. If you count states where he’s down 2 points or less, he BARELY has enough to win. Can’t miss a single state.
The debate hurt Biden. This is not a logical contest, it’s a popularity one, and Biden is not doing well. I think he’s done some great policy things, but that’s not how people vote. Democrats have to learn that it’s not enough to be “right” if you’re going to lose elections.
I mean you’re not entirely wrong, but you’re a little wrong. Just because they added levels later doesn’t mean you were correct… These games have road maps, and they don’t quickly change gears. There’s math and analytics that go into all of it.
I think you’re stretching when you say “around a few people”. There’s more money in 10,000 people spending a bit than 10 spending a ton. It’s a gradient. The top 10 spend a lot, but not enough to morph your road map for. Especially when the companies own multiple properties. Better to get them transitioned to a new game within your umbrella than disrupt the entire content road map.
There’s also far worse stuff than that and way harsher criticisms. You’re getting closer with the “changing the prices” bit, but it’s even worse than that, imo.
It’s the reason I left working at one of them as a data analyst. I’m not speaking in generalities or that interested in debating here… I know precisely how the calculations for these types of things are done because I used to be on the team that did them.
Not this game, but a different one. The whole industry operates very similarly.
I don’t like most of the responses here so I’m offer my own. Love is not found it is built.
My wife and I got married young. I’m 34 and I’ll be celebrating my 9th anniversary in under a week.
Love is where all those things come together. We have the deepest friendship. We’re weird in the same ways and we’ve basically developed our own brand of humor. I can make my wife laugh literally with a look.
Love is also a commitment to never, ever bail. It’s unlike anything else. With friends, you still try to be good company or you wouldn’t tell them the deep thoughts. But my wife and I can share anything. We’re so intertwined that there’s more understanding than judgment. We can say things we don’t like about people, about the world, about ourselves. We can be truly vulnerable.
We didn’t find love, we built it. From 25 to 34 I’m a phenomenally different person, but we’re like two planets oscillating around each other. Our orbit influences the other, and vice versa. We never would have been these people if we weren’t together. With most friends I feel like they may have some influence… But in marriage it’s just undeniable.
It’s a truly unique thing. But I will say I couldn’t understand it until I had it. And I still don’t. Dating for 4 years wasn’t the same as marriage after 1 which wasn’t the same as marriage after 5 and that’s not the same as it is now after almost 9 years. It’s always growing, always deepening, and it’s just insanely personal at a very deep level.