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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • I don’t think I am describing any hypothetical voter switching? I’m defending the value of the poll as data, and describing how the poll’s data could be extrapolated into a projection of positive or negative vibes for a desired result by comparing outcomes against naive assumptions on how undecided voters might distribute their votes. Maybe you are talking about that? I don’t consider an undecided voter deciding how they will use their vote “switching” on an issue, and I tried to make it clear that I’m not saying anybody should count on any percentage of the undecided vote, just that you’d rather be in a position where you need fewer undecided voters to reach 50% vs more. I actually left out the nuance where opinions can change over the course of a campaign, causing voters to either switch or opt against voting, that does add uncertainty to an already uncertain process. Which is my point; your language is accusing “neoliberals” of “counting on votes”, and I’m just arguing that this poll doesn’t need to count on any votes to communicate a positive, if uncertain, picture of the potential future. Your comment feels like it would be more relevant on an opinion piece about this poll that says that this election is in the bag (kind of like how your original comment implied that this poll meant the election was in the bag as a no, as I read it), which is why I am confused. I’ll admit, I can’t read Icelandic, so I haven’t read the article attached to this headline, which is maybe where I am missing context, I’m just reading the headline and a translated excerpt from the comments, so maybe there is an argument being made elsewhere in the article that I’m unaware of. I’m sorry if my tone was accusatory, I’m trying to express my confusion as to why your reaction to my comment was to talk about neoliberals counting votes, which seemed tangential to the comment I made


  • Yes. But… This poll doesn’t do that. The headline calls out 44% as the top line number, which includes 0 undecided. The tone of the headline as positive news for those in favor of EU membership is based on an implicit assertion that only 30% of undecideds would be needed to clear the 50% mark, which is a pretty good margin of error on the 50/50 division that you might naively assign to a population you have no other data on, especially before you take into a count those who may opt not to vote. It’s also notable as an opinion poll for politicians actions outside of a direct referendum (not every issue will swing every vote, so knowing that this issue has more potential to swing votes towards vs. against you might encourage actions and rhetoric supporting a closer relationship with the EU. Finally, it’s relevant as a comparison point to prior polls on this issue (in 2017, for example, a quick Google search suggests that the average was more like -20 margin opposed to EU membership, so the transition to +8 in favor is significant). It feels like you are arguing a straw man here, but maybe I am the one missing context.



  • There was a lawsuit from the AFGE (federal employees union) I think that they had to drop because it relied on the assumption that DOGE was a federal agency. When it was revealed that DOGE was just a renaming of the US Digital Service, that invalidated the premise of the lawsuit. Idk how the USDS had money lying around in its budget for a bunch of new and unqualified GS-15s to just be added to the payroll like government billets aren’t painstakingly difficult to establish, but that is another question, I suppose









  • I’ve seen it done. Not for precision, but for rough estimates, I’ve seen someone toe-heel their way across a job site. Honestly, that and the fact that an inch is usually pretty close to the length of a finger knuckle are really the biggest redeeming qualities of the imperial system in terms of making quick length guesstimates


  • Ah yes, the west. The monolithic political entity that definitely involves nobody who is critical of Donald Trump’s ravings. Trump and his sycophants have no place to criticize thanks to his words and actions. Anybody who gets behind his proposed annexations has no place to criticize. But there’s a lot of daylight between those groups and the entirety of “the west”, both within and without the US. If Brazil or South Africa want to criticize Trump’s annexation threats, their involvement in BRICS wouldn’t invalidate that criticism so long as they are also willing to criticize the threatening words and actions of Jinping and Putin. The world is not (yet) composed of 1984-esque political monoliths, and there is no need to voluntarily give up that heterogeneity in order to silence criticism of aggressive and threatening geopolitics


  • Fair, I just think jumping to the conclusion that those folks would have come out to vote for Biden is a stretch when you look at how well his campaign was going. Worth remembering that Harris way outperformed Biden in terms of approval rating, which is a very imperfect metric, but the best one we have for guessing if folks would have come out to vote for Biden but stay home for Harris. In 2020, Biden was a challenger to an incumbent who was botching Covid from both a health and economy perspective. In 2024, he was an incumbent struggling to get out of the shadow of the global post-covid recession and some very unpopular decisions in foreign policy regarding the Middle East. Assuming he would have received 2020 levels of votes is not congruent with those facts


  • How do you figure? He was looking at potentially losing Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia when he dropped out, and showing no signs of being able to campaign his way out of that hole. One of the Harris campaign’s “gaffes” in the late run was when he went and called Trump supporters garbage (or at least, said words that sounded like that) after the Puerto Rico thing at MSG). Maybe 2020 Biden could have pulled it out, but 2024 Biden, both in the sense of his current mental and social capabilities and in the sense of the baggage he had as the incumbent president, didn’t have a lot going for him