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Cake day: April 4th, 2026

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  • The trick that AI pulls is just that it is really good at appearing competent, and we as humans really bad at acknowledging how little we individually know about the world around us.

    The easiest example to ask AI detailed questions about something that you know you have expertise in. If you try to test its limit, no matter what your particular expertise is, I’m confident that in 5-10 minutes you’ll realize it’s no more intelligent than an average Joe who spent their lunch break Googling the subject or maybe someone who read a book about it once.

    To give credit where it’s due, that does mean that these AIs have a much wider breadth of knowledge than any one person could have and that is, objectively, very cool.

    On the other hand, that’s why it’s so easy to believe that AI is this all-knowing oracle that can replace all of humanity. It can give you a way better answer in an instant about things you know nothing about than you ever could off the top of your head, so it seems unbelievable. It’s instant gratification that also feels really valuable.

    Despite the trick that AI plays on our psychology, you could also just read a book or two or participate in any form of genuine learning, and it really doesn’t take long for you to outgrow whatever the AI is capable of. It takes a bit longer, but now you have grown your actual intelligence and you get to keep it for a $0/month subscription and they don’t need to build another data center in your backyard.









  • I don’t know if there’s a shortage of raw material or if no one wanted to invest in more manufacturing when AI could crash within a short time.

    My understanding is that it’s the latter. AFAIK it takes something like 3-5 years to get a fab going if you already know what you’re doing, so it would not only be wildly expensive but you’re also gambling that RAM won’t come back down to a reasonable supply/demand in the next 5-10 years to break even on the whole process.

    There’s also the fact that it wouldn’t really make sense for Valve unless they wanted to make a huge pivot in their whole business. Entry costs aside, manufacturing RAM is not really something a company can just do as a “side gig”. Valve is only like 400 people, so it wouldn’t be Valve just “starting to produce RAM” but rather Valve turning itself into a RAM manufacturer that also distributes video games.






  • I think that may be true for Peter Thiel or Larry Ellison, but for the rest of them it’s just the same old game: riding the wave of whatever investors want to see. The actual business only matters as far as they can use it to convince investors to keep throwing money at them.

    If you gave them a button that would give them a million dollars but a child would die, they’d press it without a thought. They’d press the button until there were no more children on the planet. They’d use the money to convince people to have children just so they could keep pressing the button.

    IMO most of these CEOs are so excited about AI because it’s just been the best money printer in a while. Investors are irrationally interested in AI, so these CEOs will continue to find any excuse to say the letters “AI” at least until people stop sending them money for it.






  • If anything, it’s the other way around: we have an AI-company PR problem. Media outlets can’t stop themselves from presenting interviews with CEOs of AI companies as some sort of reliable source for how incredible AI really is if we would only spend more money locking ourselves into AI-driven workflows.

    TL;DR the umbrella-selling weatherman keeps predicting that rain is on the way