• 0 Posts
  • 29 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 11th, 2023

help-circle
  • That was my initial reaction, thinking China MUST hold more treasury bonds than anyone else, right? Turns out that’s typically Japan ($1 trillion), and the UK has generally held roughly the same number as China (both in the $700B range). Maybe the US anticipated and had contingencies ready if it was just China doing the selling, but when the other big holders started a slow bleed, it might’ve given them pause? Dunno.

    We also don’t know who held what more recently than January and I don’t know if the data gap is the usual lag or if the the people who do this work at the Treasury department got “DOGE’d”.

    Bottom line, it’s been fun to think about but I don’t think we should put too much stock in conspiracy theories originating on Substack.


  • There’s a theory being batted around without too much evidence (hold tight, Snopes is on it) that Mark Carney talked European and Japanese leaders into accumulating US Treasury bonds, and then slow-selling them to make Trump squirm once he imposed the broad-brush tariffs to spook the T-bill market.

    The theory sounds mostly plausible in that Carney was in Europe for closed door meetings with European leaders shortly after being designated PM, and that Trump backed off so quickly and used the language of “the bond market is tricky” to justify the change in direction. Dropping demand for T-bills leads the Fed to increase yields to keep the borrowing taps on, means expensive borrowing for them, means no money for tax cuts for billionaires.

    On the other hand, the story originates from a twice-fired shock-jock’s Substack.

    But it sounds like something a wicked smart Harvard/Oxford educated economist would dream up and pull off…

    ¯\(ツ)






  • To properly answer, we need to define what we mean as “airborne” which has gotten a bunch of people very upset recently. Prior to the COVID pandemic, the transmission model for respiratory viruses focussed on 3 distinct models of transmission:

    • Fomites are collections of excretions on surfaces containing live virus. An infectious person cough into their hand, pick their nose, or similar, then touch the doorknob. The next person touches the doorknob, then their mucus membrane (nose, eye, mouth) and they get infected.
    • Droplets are large collections of excretions that are transmitted during talking, shouting, singing, coughing, or sneezing. They are ballistically expelled, but don’t remain in the air. An infected person expels these droplets, and must be in range of another person who is struck by these droplets in their mucus membranes to be infected.
    • Finally, airborne transmission occurs when micro droplets small enough to ride on air currents are expelled from infected people, and non infected people inhale them into their airways.

    COVID was presumed to only be transmitted through the first 2 methods. But weird things were observed, where transmission occurred when people (or ferret model experiments) were separated by barriers through which ballistic droplets couldn’t pass, like air ducts with multiple 90° bends. People also got sick after being in rooms many minutes after infected people had been present, long after ballistic droplets would have harmlessly fallen to the ground.

    In reality, droplet models were just close range transmission, and airborne long range transmission of bio-aerosols, or micro droplets created from breathing, shouting, singing, coughing, or sneezing. The range was more a function of the transmissibility of the virus. Highly infective things can infect at low doses at long range. Less infective things occur with much higher doses, when people are quite close to one another. This folded in the prior models quite nicely. It was, however, not well accepted.

    If a disease is to be transmitted by bio-aerosols, the disease vector needs to be able to enter the body through the surfaces with which it will interact upon being “breathed in”. This doesn’t work well for the STI viruses or bacteria, nor the malarial parasite, as they aren’t actively expelled in the respiratory system, so don’t generate bio-aerosols, and require access to highly specific host cells not easily accessed through the respiratory system at the necessary volumes to create an infection.

    So, no, not really possible for non-respiratory viruses to become “airborne” in that sense.there would need to be a LOT of intermediate steps.

    But diseases that we used to consider to be transmitted by the now defunct ballistic droplet model can become “airborne” (instead of “droplet”) if their ability to infect a subject becomes more successful at lower doses of pathogen such that it can occur at longer range, and over longer times.