My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
It’s been a much slower week than last week, consisting mainly of consolidation and (so far, empty) threats.
In Yemen, Ansarallah continues to battle Saudi-backed mercenary groups. Gains have been relatively slower compared to the lightning offensive earlier that took the western coastline, which makes sense with all the new territory they have to administer and generally sort out, including fortifying towns and cities against potential Saudi assaults from the north. The biggest news so far has been Trump apparently being on the verge of striking Yemen over the weekend due to Saudi insistence, to the extent that embassies across the region issued alerts warning that they might soon be attacked, but then deciding not to when people in his administration told him not to. I haven’t cared for Trump’s theatrics for several months now, so I won’t care to speculate whether this is a bluff or a double bluff and so on; all I will say is that a couple years ago, a significantly stronger US military tried and failed to dislodge Ansarallah’s control of the Red Sea, and that this time, they even seem willing to hit Saudi oil facilities in response.
On that note, diesel continues to break new price records, and gasoline isn’t too far behind it. Outright shortages haven’t yet become systemic, as tempting as it is to look at a couple gas stations running out and drawing trend lines from there, but it’s certainly going to be where we’re headed if there isn’t a diesel export ban eventually, which Russia and others have already implemented. A ban would somewhat alleviate US price hikes, but would cause major instability throughout the rest of the world due to the ubiquity of diesel in transportation infrastructure, and if you’ve created a favourable international order over the past century or so, you really don’t want to blow it up.
Next up: Poland’s been amping up their anti-Russian rhetoric to new heights lately, joining Germany and others in advocating for further aid to Ukraine and the creation of modern national armies in Europe to send into Ukraine to battle Russia directly. This type of thing would have been rather frightening to me back in 2023 and 2024, but at this point, all I can do is shake my head. We all saw how the US military, which is more powerful than yours, has faired against Iran, which is weaker than Russia - and you want to arm yourself with largely American weapon systems, or at least systems heavily inspired by the American MIC? Lol. Lmao, even.
Lastly for today, Trump seems to have taken a victory lap over their more-or-less annexation of Greenland after Denmark permitted it. As I and many others noted back when this was all over the media initially months ago, the US has had a military base there for decades already and has been investing in mining there too for a while, so this is more of a formalization of the de facto status quo. Denmark previously technically had a veto on US military activity there, but now seems to be gone; after all, there is little chance that Denmark would ever have the courage to actually use said veto anyway at this point. So, geopolitically, it’s a fairly minor news item that serves mainly as yet another humiliation for Europe in a long chain that stretches far into the past and continues to stretch into the future. For the Greenlanders themselves, however, this does seem like pretty catastrophic news, with any and all non-US foreign investment (such as by China) likely to be cut.
(and as a postscript here just before I hit post: yes, the Iranian president physically travelling to the US is embarrassing for Iran and very embarrassing for him. at least Araghchi going makes sense given he’s the foreign minister. the silver lining of this debacle might be a further discrediting of the non-hardliner side?)
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Eight U.S. Marines were injured in a recent Iranian cruise missile attack against a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz – NBC According to three U.S. officials, the marines were operating aboard a ‘U.S.-contracted’ vessel, rather than an actual American warship.
- Middle East Spectator
In their recent meeting, Trump told Xi Jinping that America is willing to sell weapons to China President Xi Jinping responded politely, but was not interested in the idea.
- Middle East Spectator
Trump is back talking about a diesel export ban!
A deep dive on the operational and tactical details of Ansarallah’s offensive to Mokha recently. This is a good article, lots of pre-2026 background and discussion. The use of fake comms to “order” retreat during their attack is brilliant. Worth reading in full
https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-seven-day-lightning-offensive-that-changed-yemens-war/
But the Houthis were fighting on another battlefield as well: communications. After abandoning the use of “Claude” over fears that it had been infiltrated by the United States or Israel, the Houthis reportedly assembled a team of Houthi, Hezbollah and Iraqi experts. Vehicles carrying sophisticated communications software were sent to intercept communications between government forces on the front lines extending from western Taiz to Mokha. According to NRF officials, electronic warfare units detected and were able to listen to 5,346 radio communications devices near the front line: 3,181 around the al-Barh front in Taiz and 2,165 around Hodeidah.
According to information I received, the system was then used to send withdrawal orders to front-line units while those same positions were being massively struck by missiles and drones. The effect was devastating. After the fall of Alwaziah district in Taiz, some fighters were afraid the Houthis might storm Dhubab and cut the supply line, particularly those who have families there; they abandoned some front-line positions to rescue their families. The residents thought it was a final pullout. The fighters thought they would come back to their front-line sites, but time was not on their side, according to military and political sources. Some were informed about the withdrawal while others, including commanders, were not.
TRUMP TO MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT 2PM ET MONDAY: WHITE HOUSE
It will be interesting to see if it is a full diesel export ban or if they try to do some partial thing.
U.S. Air Force fighter jets continue to patrol Iraqi Kurdistan’s airspace. It is possible a renewed Iranian UAV launch was detected. USAF fighters are the only reliable way to intercept Iranian UAVs due to the U.S. withdrawing all other air defenses.
- Middle East Spectator
https://nitter.click/josh_wingrove/status/2104205160797151699
(Bloomberg) – President Donald Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping at one point if he would to like to buy some American armaments, US Ambassador to China David Perdue says.
Lmao.
Flávio Bolsonaro blames the Catholic Church for ‘fake news’, but omits that the attack on Our Lady came from the pastor who baptized him. Is he going to defy the Catholic Church and forget his promise to make Brazil the country of Evangelicals only? Blatant hypocrisy!
Earlier today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu landed in the UAE to meet with Mohammed bin Zayed According to Israel’s Channel 13, the meeting lasted more than 6 hours and was primarily focused on Iran.
- Middle East Spectator
It’s not breaking news that over time Trump has used simpler and simpler English. But now in 2026 - he’s a shell of what he was in 2015. He sounds not only low energy but broken too.
CBS News - President Trump on Sunday said he hasn’t ruled out more military strikes on Iran before the midterm elections in November. Asked by Fox News’ Aishah Hasnie if strikes in the coming weeks were still an option, Mr. Trump replied:
“I don’t want to say that. I don’t want to say that. I mean, it’s possible, but I just don’t want to say that.”
As he has several times in recent months, Mr. Trump predicted the war would end soon and that “the oil will go down way down to what it was before the war, and the key is Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. That’s the key to the whole thing.”
Long ‘guy in Spain’ post incoming…
The Puerta del Sol in Madrid has been occupied in protest at the insane rent increases suffered in Spain over the last few years, catalysed by the brutal eviction of Maricarmen , and hilariously upstaging the big conservative protest that was expected to dominate the headlines this weekend lol
Spain is quite an interesting place atm. On the one hand, there’s a generally fashy vibe in ascendence: anecdotally I can tell you that middle class people are way less shy than they used to be about telling you at great length that they are Adolf Hitler. This trend has been reflected in polling and recent elections, including a worrying tendency for working class neighborhoods to vote for hard-right Vox, which again I can give some anecdotal weight to.
If I had to put money on it, I’d say we will almost certainly have a hard right government after the next election.
However, there are a few reasons to think otherwise, or at least to believe that such a government would be met with significant resistance from civil society:
- Despite the wet fart that was Podemos, the organized left never went away. Communist Youth groups in particular have been very involved in anti-eviction protests in my barrio, and seem to be flyering very actively
- The protests against the genocide in Palestine were genuinely impressive, and seem to have revitalized the traditional anti-NATO tendency of the Spanish left
- Popular opinion on data centers, which was quite positive until recently, is changing rapidly as the reality of actually having one of the things in your town bleeds through from the US. Regional right-wing governments have wedded themselves to pushing through construction and seem intent on loudly fighting against the Sanchez government’s requirements for increased electrical demand to be matched with increased supply of renewable energy. A classic case of the the Spanish right not being able to keep it in their pants.
- The effects of PP-VOX government are really starting to be felt at the regional level, with increased waiting lists in the health systems they control, and poor PISA results from their education authorities. Never underestimate the Spanish middle class’s appetite for shit public services ofc, especially if some of the money is redirected into awful Christmas spectaculars, but I can imagine the regional governments going left in reaction to the central government going right. The Spanish system seems designed to promote this sort of back and forth in fact.
So yeah, it’s grim. But Spain continues to torture its leftists with the impression that maybe not all hope is lost
💣Bomb plot stopped at RAF base💣
So far the only news is just “someone got scared by three white vans and called the cops and they arrested 5 guys with no burgers or fries”
Though DJT did say that they definitely were planning to blow something up but he’s probably just saying what he heard on the news.
Edit: the vans have (apparently incorrect) branding on the side for Fuel2You, an actual fuel-delivery-from-a-van service, so there’s a chance the gang has been arrested
President Trump when asked about the incident at RAF Fairford earlier today:
‘It was fantastic. Working with Britain it was an amazing job. We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort. Working with the British turned out great. It may have been Scotland Yard, I don’t know, we worked with a lot of them—we had them under view for a long time, and we got them.’
- Middle East Spectator
India: For the last few days, opposition parties were demanding the removal of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. He had illegally changed the rules of the Special Intensive Revision of the voter roll, without consulting the other two Election Commissioners, and even failing to reply to their objections. He is accused of using the SIR to exclude Muslims, backward castes and rural voters who generally vote for opposition parties. Many voters have gone to court, and both the Supreme Court and lower courts have asked the Election Commission to not remove their names.
Yesterday, Jiji Thomson, a former Chief Secretary (the senior most civil servant) of Keralam and Kumar’s friend, said that Kumar had asked him to contest for the BJP.
Supreme Court Justice Dino (Member of the Communist Party) overturned a ruling by Supreme Court Justice Mendonça (Radical Evangelical), who had ordered the removal of “notoriously false” posts. Dino asserts that there is no “degree of certainty” regarding the illegality of the posts and defends freedom of expression.
Article
Justice Flávio Dino of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) overturned Justice André Mendonça’s decision and allowed social media posts regarding the law that designated Our Lady of Aparecida as the “patron saint of Brazil.”
The rumor that Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) would, if elected, revoke the saint’s title damaged the campaign, which requested intervention from the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). Mendonça ruled in favor of the candidate, deeming the content “notoriously untrue.”
However, this Sunday (the 27th), Dino said that posts like the one by actor Antônio Tabet do not provide “a sufficient degree of certainty of illegality to warrant extremely harsh consequences against freedom of expression and, ultimately, against religious freedom itself.”
Dino’s decision responds to a request from Tabet, whose post was taken down by digital platforms on Mendonça’s orders. In the post, the actor stated that “the militia family hates Black women so much that it decided to attack Our Lady of Aparecida.” There was no mention of Flávio by name.
According to Dino, removing the content would imply “establishing as fact that ‘militia family’ refers to a specific candidate for the presidency.” The justice also stated that debates about religious ideas cannot be suppressed by disproportionate judicial decisions.
“Those who have faith in Our Lady of Aparecida would, in practice, be afraid or prevented from expressing themselves,” said Dino, noting that Flávio even called for the arrest of a Planalto Palace employee for reposting content about Our Lady.
The minister noted that the Feast of Our Lady of Aparecida, celebrated on October 12, is approaching, “which makes it even more unacceptable to maintain unreasonable restrictions on the expression of this form of faith.”
“It is legally permissible for a candidate or their supporters to oppose certain religious beliefs, since there can be no imposition in this area. However, such a candidate or their supporters cannot prevent their positions from being presented and freely debated.”
Although he reviewed a request specifically from Tabet, the justice stated that the reinstatement of the post applies to all “others that were removed on the same grounds.” He also said that other profiles that feel they have been wronged may request that the decision be extended to them.
“With the overturning of the TSE’s decision, the freedom of expression and religious freedom of those who advocate for maintaining the law that designated Our Lady of Aparecida as the ‘Patroness of Brazil’ are preserved,” wrote Dino.
At the TSE, Mendonça said that the removal was a measure “particularly necessary given the proximity of the election, the sensitivity of the issue for a significant portion of the electorate, and the high potential for the information to spread.”
Mendonça also stated that he took into account “the reach the publication had already achieved, the seriousness of the allegations, the lack of even minimal evidentiary support for the narrative, the religious sensitivity of the issue, and, above all, the proximity of the election.”
The news story about the removal of the title of patron saint of Brazil went viral on social media on Thursday (24). Days earlier, the interpretation had circulated that the alignment of Catholic bishops with Lula (Workers’ Party) stemmed from a fear that Flávio might act in this regard, since evangelicals do not worship saints.
There is no known statement by Flávio signaling such an intention. The senator denied the allegations. About a month ago, the Liberal candidate said he intends to “declare that Brazil belongs to the Lord Jesus Christ.”
