Even with some refreshing of interceptor stocks, there’s no rebuilding on the radar network that can reasonably happen soon (unless they do actually steal away the THAAD radar in Korea, and maybe some of the ones deployed to CONUS - and, well, Iran’s probably just going to destroy those too). The US/Israeli air defense network has, essentially, severe degradation already baked in for years - the amount of munitions you have matters a lot less if you can’t actually figure out what to shoot them at, which is why the destruction of the radars was such an important move by Iran. And the aggressors aren’t the only ones who get to produce during the ceasefire - Iran’s going to be pumping stuff out too, and regaining access to what they had but was buried in the missile cities. Had this ceasefire happened after an extensive US campaign on power plants and industry (they have struck some industrial sites, but mostly related to oil, there was that big steel plant hit, but beyond that I don’t think they’ve hit that much Iranian manufacturing industry), then this would me more of an argument, a ceasefire between a country with its industry severely damaged and one with its still intact would obviously favor the later one. But this isn’t the current scenario

And how much interceptor production can really be managed in this period? PAC-3 is 500 annually, striving for 650 by 2027 - so let’s say 600, that’s around 23 for 2 weeks. PAC-2 I think is even less, and it’s a less capable interceptor anyway. THAAD is 96 annually, with ambitious plans to grow it to 400, but that’s far off into the future - so, for now, it’s like 4 rounds for these 2 weeks. SM-6 is 125 and SM-3 is 24, so that’s 5 and less than one, respectively. Arrow numbers aren’t known, but for the more advanced Arrow 3 it’s estimated to take “a few months to produce” a single one, so that one’s not happening; the Arrow 2’s simpler and must be produced more, I’m finding some figures claiming 20-50 annually but not a lot of sourcing, so who knows. Still, unlikely that much will be done in two weeks - they’re working on increasing production, but that’s also not something that’s going to materialize immediately. Couldn’t find any numbers on David’s Sling.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/hardened-underground-facilities-now-being-sought-for-al-udeid-air-base

One of the shelter sources sought requests from CENTCOM this week is a long-term seven-year project while the other is for more immediate protection. Neither addresses the issue of protecting aircraft. On Wednesday, U.S. Air Forces Central (AFCENT) put out a call for vendors who are able to help bolster force protection at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest American military installation in the Middle East. Like many other bases in the region, it has come under frequent attack from Iran. AFCENT is seeking information from companies able to plan and design “a hardened, underground, secure, Combat Center Building…and squadron operations buildings supporting a variety of airframe and missions to include, but not limited to, bombers, fighters, and unmanned aircraft systems for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).”

The sources sought solicitation, which could lead to a sole-source contract award, states that the plan may also seek construction of additional facilities, including administrative offices, command and control facilities, operational readiness and life support facilities for specialized personnel, elevators, and a parking garage.

Americans are in such elevated stages of car-brain that even their underground military bases need fucking parking garages

However, there is a long lead time for this project, even if it gets approved. A contract solicitation won’t be issued until April 2027, with the award anticipated in January 2028.

…

That fact that the plan will take years to come to fruition also raises questions about why it had not been unveiled sooner, given that Al Udeid has long been known to be a target of potential Iranian attacks. It is also not publicly known whether the proposed Combat Center Building at Al Udeid will replace or augment the current Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) that serves as a command and control headquarters for U.S. and allied aircraft operating across the Middle East. We’ve reached out to AFCENT for clarification, but they deferred us to CENTCOM, which declined comment.

…

In a more immediate request, CENTCOM is looking for vendors capable of providing “prefabricated, transportable, hardened shelter systems designed to protect personnel from blast and fragmentation threats,” according to a sources sought posting on Monday. “All proposed solutions must be deliverable to the Aqaba Air Cargo Terminal at King Hussein International Airport in Aqaba, Jordan.” Unlike the Al Udeid plan, CENTCOM is looking for a quick turnaround on these shelters, asking that vendors submit “three potential delivery options reflecting estimated timelines of 3 days, 15 days, and 30 days.” “Responses shall include a comprehensive description of the materials used in fabrication, including composition, structural design, and any reinforcement features,” according to the solicitation. “Vendors must also clearly identify the protection level of each proposed bunker, including the highest level of threat (e.g., blast force, fragmentation, or ballistic impact) the system is designed to withstand.” The total quantity of these shelters is currently unknown and vendors are being asked to provide pricing structures “that reflect any available economies of scale.” The timeline for this project is unclear. Responses are due today, but there is no contract award deadline listed in the solicitation. CENTCOM declined our request for details, citing operational security concerns.

So, one of these isn’t actually happening anytime soon, and the one that maybe could happen soon is just for small shelters to protect personnel - neither would do anything to protect aircraft on these bases and prevent another E-3 fiasco, and the second one does nothing to allow the base to operate under bombardment - if your personnel are rushing into bunkers, obviously they’re not able to keep doing the various jobs they were supposed to be doing, that’s why the first one includes a whole underground command center, but obviously that’s not getting built quick.

And technically, the underground complex one is for Al Udeid in Qatar, which has been mostly evacuated - obviously they’re not going to get to run a massive construction operation there without the Iranians noticing, so the whole thing’s probably vaporware anyway.