Historically the most dangerous tool of the US empire has been internal coups, but that has conclusively been defeated by Venezuela
As a result the US is grudgingly resorting to some bungled military attempt, likely a bigger version of that merc invasion several years ago, that was defeated by local fishermen
Aside from a few exceptions, US military invasions fail when targeting large countries; the jungles of southern and eastern Venezuela are impervious to US power projection, the Colombian border (which is only viable route to invade Venezuela) is closed and the northern coast is protected by a massive mountain range and dense, large, pro regime cities and towns
As a result the US will be forced to rely on air power and naval bombardment to damage the the revolutionary state
The logistical equation is fairly obvious in this case, it would require a decade of sustained warfare with the deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops to overcome the militia networks and the sheer geography of Venezuela
And the first dead Venezuelan child by a US bomb or bullet will gureentee the long overdue obliteration of the opposition for generations
Israel did not conquer Gaza by land, but their bombing has reduced almost everywhere to ruins. Pretty much everywhere the US attacks ends up left in ruins even if the invaders give up and leave. America can inflict suffering and devastation on the Venezuelan people and I don’t think Venezuela can do anything back. There’s not going to be an equivalent of operation true promise against Americans.
yeah seriously, “let’s invade a mountainous jungle nation with sympathetic neighbors, while half the county hates me”
sure trump, what could go wrong?
I really hope this is the case.
yeah, never underestimate Amerikkka’s ability to rain death and destruction, they don’t care if they win or not, as long as they bomb the hell out of countries so they can keep funnelling $$ to the MIC. Any, so called “Leftist” who thinks Russia/China is equally bad is no ally.
i tried to find it again, but there was an article recently about how only like 20% of the military’s equipment is even mission capable.
US military invasions fail
When was the last time a country was able to keep the invading US forces from blowing through that country’s defending military and just park wherever? I’m pretty sure US military invasions are almost always successful.
A large scale bombardment campaign by the US against Venezuela will result in 100,000’s to millions of civilian refuges fleeing the country in a few years.
Whatever friendly neighbors Venezuela has now, will shrink over time as the influx of Venezuelans puts pressure in the receiving countries’ resources.
While the USA is bombing the shit of Venezuela the CIA and JSOC will be in the those neighboring countries ramping up the right wing propaganda operations to turn those once friendly neighbors against the Venezuelan refuges. Economic sanctions will come down on those neighboring countries that resist the US funded right wing propaganda operations too well.
So if this isn’t some incredibly bloody sabre rattling from the USA or China/Russia pulls some big dog shit, US military bombardment and in country JSOC stuff will be pretty effective.
A large bombardment that results in civilian displacement and mass death, will forever discreet the opposition, no matter how many officials they kill or how many generals are blown to smithereens the entire country will know it’s the US that is responsible for creating Gaza like images in Venezuela, opposition figures will likely be targeted by lynch mobs or assassinated, militia recruitment will skyrocket and a ‘rally around the flag’ phenomenon will take place
Venezuela is not Gaza, it’s a massive country, it can absorb massive bombardment and the blame won’t be abstract like with economic sanctions, it’ll be direct and obvious, every bomb dropped on Venezuelan soil strengthens the revolutionary movement
Venezuela is not Gaza, this is true. But it is like Iraq and Afghanistan, where the US military and economic interests did whatever they wanted until the political/economic costs and benefits hit a break even or loss point.
Hopefully, (assuming a worse case scenario where the USA does actually try to turn Venezuela into an Iraq/Afghanistan for itself) there can be enough pain caused by resistance within Venezuela (combined with the USA failing as a political entity on the world stage) that this timeline drops from 10+ years down to just a few very horrible bloody years for the Venezuelans.
But it is like Iraq and Afghanistan
The US could only invade those countries because they weren’t socialist and it literally bribed the majority of the armed factions not to fight, in the case of Iraq most of the army dissolved for the sake of dollars in briefcases, handed out in the greatest incident of mass bribery in human history
The socialist militias can’t be bribed and without boots on the ground, the US can’t fund, arm or train traitors and kulaks
The US has nothing but air and naval power over Venezuela, if that was enough, Yemen would’ve fallen by now
Sadly, the US is more likely to just take the coastal oil fields and watch Venezuela’s economy crumble under siege. I’m still expecting something to happen, but it’s hard to be optimistic about any direct intervention.
“Seremos tu Vietnám latinoamericano!”
That was the last line of a colectivo chant ~6 years ago that I would often listen to in the morning to get energized.
They’re not going to go for a full invasion like that. It’s going to look more like Afghanistan.
They’ll decapitate the government and anyone further down the chain that they need to, then they’ll support the pro-US opposition. They won’t want to fully takeover or occupy.
The most they’ll do is set up some bases. Those bases will be impossible to remove because attacking them without getting airstriked won’t be possible. You can fire some rockets into them but that’s about it.
Those bases will then be used as HQs for clandestine operations locally to support the pro-US factions.
All they have to do to achieve this is decapitate the existing government and then set about supporting the opposition. It will fail in the longterm, just as it did in Afghanistan, but in the short term it will look like a success.
It all hinges on the decapitation strikes though. If Maduro and his government aren’t killed then it will be much much harder.
