The technological struggles are in some ways beside the point. The financial bet on artificial general intelligence is so big that failure could cause a depression.
This is a funny graph. What’s the Y-axis? Why the hell DVDs are a bigger innovation than a Steam Engine or a Light Bulb? It has a way bigger increase on the Y-axis.
In fact, the top 3 innovations since 1400 according to the chart are
Microprocessors
Man on Moon
DVDs
And I find it funny that in the year 2025 there are no people on the Moon and most people do not use DVDs anymore.
And speaking of Microprocessors, why the hell Transistors are not on the chart? Or even Computers in general? Where did the humanity placed their Microprocessors before Apple Macintosh was designed (this is an innovation? IBM PC was way more impactful…)
The chart is just for illustration purposes to make a point. I don’t see why you need to be such a dick about it. Feel free to reference any other chart that you like better which displays the progress of technological advancements thorough human history - they all look the same; for most of history nothing happened and then everything happened. If you don’t think that this progress has been increasing at explosive speed over the past few hundreds of years then I don’t know what to tell you. People 10k years ago had basically the same technology as people 30k years ago. Now compare that with what has happened even jist during your lifetime.
Its not a chart, to be that it would have to show some sort of relation between things. What it is is a list of things that were invented put onto an exponential curve to try and back up loony singularity naratives.
Trying to claim there was vastly less innovation in the entire 19th century than there was in the past decade is just nonsense.
The chart is just for illustration to highlight my point. As I already said - pick a different chart if you prefer, it doesn’t change the argument I’m making.
It took us hundreds of thousands of years to go from stone tools to controlling fire. Ten thousand years to go from rope to fish hook. And then just 60 years to go from flight to space flight.
I’ll happily grant you rapid technological progress even over the past thousand years. My point still stands - that’s yesterday on the timeline I’m talking about.
If you lived 50,000 years ago, you’d see no technological advancement over your entire lifetime. Now, you can’t even predict what technology will look like ten years from now. Never before in human history have we taken such leaps as we have in the past thousand years. Put that on a graph and you’d see a steady line barely sloping upward from the first humans until about a thousand years ago - then a massive spike shooting almost vertically, with no signs of slowing down. And we’re standing right on top of that spike.
Throughout all of human history, the period we’re living in right now is highly unusual - which is why I claim that on this timeline, AGI might as well be here tomorrow.
I think their point is that your attempt to illustrate yours is poorly executed.
I’m sure they would not have nitpicked if you had just said it with words. It’s probably just AI generated or was found using a quick google since you didn’t even notice where the “chart” suggested there was more innovation in the last decade than the entire 19th century.
We’re probably going to find out sooner rather than later.
This is a funny graph. What’s the Y-axis? Why the hell DVDs are a bigger innovation than a Steam Engine or a Light Bulb? It has a way bigger increase on the Y-axis.
In fact, the top 3 innovations since 1400 according to the chart are
And I find it funny that in the year 2025 there are no people on the Moon and most people do not use DVDs anymore.
And speaking of Microprocessors, why the hell Transistors are not on the chart? Or even Computers in general? Where did the humanity placed their Microprocessors before Apple Macintosh was designed (this is an innovation? IBM PC was way more impactful…)
Such a funny chart you shared. Great joke!
Also “3D Movies” is a whole joke on its own.
The chart is just for illustration purposes to make a point. I don’t see why you need to be such a dick about it. Feel free to reference any other chart that you like better which displays the progress of technological advancements thorough human history - they all look the same; for most of history nothing happened and then everything happened. If you don’t think that this progress has been increasing at explosive speed over the past few hundreds of years then I don’t know what to tell you. People 10k years ago had basically the same technology as people 30k years ago. Now compare that with what has happened even jist during your lifetime.
Its not a chart, to be that it would have to show some sort of relation between things. What it is is a list of things that were invented put onto an exponential curve to try and back up loony singularity naratives.
Trying to claim there was vastly less innovation in the entire 19th century than there was in the past decade is just nonsense.
And where have I made such claim?
The “chart” that you posted, it showed barely any increase in the 1800s and massive increases in the last decades.
The chart is just for illustration to highlight my point. As I already said - pick a different chart if you prefer, it doesn’t change the argument I’m making.
It took us hundreds of thousands of years to go from stone tools to controlling fire. Ten thousand years to go from rope to fish hook. And then just 60 years to go from flight to space flight.
I’ll happily grant you rapid technological progress even over the past thousand years. My point still stands - that’s yesterday on the timeline I’m talking about.
If you lived 50,000 years ago, you’d see no technological advancement over your entire lifetime. Now, you can’t even predict what technology will look like ten years from now. Never before in human history have we taken such leaps as we have in the past thousand years. Put that on a graph and you’d see a steady line barely sloping upward from the first humans until about a thousand years ago - then a massive spike shooting almost vertically, with no signs of slowing down. And we’re standing right on top of that spike.
Throughout all of human history, the period we’re living in right now is highly unusual - which is why I claim that on this timeline, AGI might as well be here tomorrow.
I think their point is that your attempt to illustrate yours is poorly executed.
I’m sure they would not have nitpicked if you had just said it with words. It’s probably just AI generated or was found using a quick google since you didn’t even notice where the “chart” suggested there was more innovation in the last decade than the entire 19th century.
If we make this graph in 100 years almost nothing modern like hybrid cars, dvds, etc. will be in it.
Just like this graph excludes a ton of improvements in metallurgy that enabled the steam engine.
There’s also no reason for it to be a smooth curve, it looks more like a series if steps with varying flat spots between them in my head.
And we are terrible at predicting how long a flat spot will be between improvements.
ah yes, selection bias
Exactly. Quantifying technological growth is incredibly difficult.